Key Takeaway
Bitcoin crashes below $90,000 for the first time since April before recovering, wiping out all 2025 gains as institutional outflows and waning rate-cut expectations intensified market fear.
Bitcoin Plunges to Multi-Month Lows
Bitcoin experienced a dramatic selloff on November 18, briefly dropping to $89,426—its lowest point since April 2025. The world’s largest cryptocurrency has now fallen nearly 30% from its October peak of $126,250, erasing all gains accumulated during 2025. The asset stabilized around $92,000 by day’s end but remained significantly underwater for investors who bought during the summer rally.
The decline wiped approximately $600 billion from Bitcoin’s market capitalization in just six weeks, with the broader cryptocurrency market losing over $1 trillion during the same period. This represents a complete reversal of momentum that had propelled Bitcoin toward the $100,000 psychological threshold earlier this month.
The “Death Cross” Triggers Technical Fear
Bitcoin has triggered what technical analysts call a “death cross”—a bearish pattern where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, traditionally signaling sustained downward momentum. While this sounds ominous, historical data provides context. The death cross has occurred three previous times since 2023, and each coincided with major local bottoms: September 2023 near $25,000, August 2024 around $49,000, and April 2025 below $75,000.
Key technical support levels are now under assault. Analysts identify a critical zone between $90,000 and $93,000, with potential downside to $86,000-$88,000 if this breaks. Some technical traders warn of a liquidity gap toward the $74,000-$76,000 range—the April lows.
Record ETF Outflows Signal Institutional Retreat
The selloff has coincided with an unprecedented exodus from Bitcoin ETFs. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) experienced a staggering $1.26 billion in net outflows this month—the largest monthly redemption since its January 2024 launch. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs collectively recorded $2.9 billion in net outflows over the first 17 days of November, with November 14 alone seeing $866 million withdraw.
This represents a dramatic reversal. ETF holdings had grown from zero at launch to more than 1.33 million BTC by mid-November 2025. However, investor appetite has evaporated, with Standard Chartered Bank estimating that sustained weakness below $90,000 could result in half of publicly listed companies’ Bitcoin holdings becoming “underwater”—valued below acquisition cost.
Macro Headwinds: Fading Rate Cut Expectations
Bitcoin’s decline has been closely tied to shifting Federal Reserve expectations. Market probability for a December rate cut collapsed from nearly 70% in early November to just 42-46% by mid-November. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that rate cuts are “not a foregone conclusion,” dampening hopes for the accommodative policy Bitcoin typically benefits from.
For Bitcoin—which behaves like a high-beta tech stock rather than a safe-haven asset—the prospect of “higher-for-longer” rates has created toxic conditions. Crypto market maker Wintermute noted that the rate-cut probability reversal occurred in approximately one week, “further plunging the already weak sentiment in risk assets”.
Whale Profit-Taking and Missing Institutional Buyers
Long-term Bitcoin holders are engaging in sustained profit-taking, particularly near the $100,000 psychological threshold. The number of wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC—traditional “whales”—has fallen from 1,500 in November 2024 to 1,300 by October 2025, though recent data suggests a reversal as whales quietly accumulate during weakness.
The problem: institutional demand to absorb whale selling has disappeared. While MicroStrategy announced an $835.6 million Bitcoin purchase on November 16, acquiring 8,178 BTC, this lone institutional buyer cannot offset the broader market exodus.
Market Sentiment Reaches “Extreme Fear”
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index plummeted to 10-15—extreme fear territory. Over $1 billion in leveraged futures positions liquidated in the 24 hours surrounding the November 18 crash, with 189,053 traders closing positions in a single day.
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg
